Mar. 19--People will buy more along the Grand Strand this spring than last, but not as much as they would if gas prices were lower, an economic forecaster said.
Spring retail sales are expected to grow by 3 percent over the same quarter last year, a significant drop from the 14 percent growth seen from 1998 to 1999.
Gas prices, the highest in two decades, are to blame for the modest growth, which represents just slightly more than inflation, said Al Parish, director of the Center for Economic Forecasting.
Because of the gas prices, some tourists planning to drive to the area will cancel their trips, he said.
Others still will come, but spend less. Parish predicts taxed retail sales for spring -- March, April and May -- will hit $1.625 billion in Horry and Georgetown counties. That's up from $1.581 billion in spring 1999 and $1.382 billion in spring 1998.
'[Gas prices] will have some impact, but it is not severe,' said Parish, who released his spring economic forecasts last week. 'The important thing is it is still predicted to go up.'
Double-digit percent growth could return for the summer, when Parish expects gas prices to level off at about $1.25 a gallon for regular unleaded.
At $1.47 now, prices likely will peak at $1.80 in May, assuming the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decides later this month to increase production, he said.
Retail sales in the summer -- June, July and August -- could hit $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion, up from the $2 billion a year ago, Parish said.
Some local retailers expect sales to continue to rise, despite gas prices.
As host to the National Collegiate Athletic Association cheerleading competition in late April, Broadway at the Beach representatives anticipate a strong spring. The two-day event attracts about 6,000 cheerleaders and their families.
'That's a big indication of how our spring is going to be,' said Rebecca Feagin, Broadway at the Beach's marketing director of retail operations. 'We are guaranteed that traffic to come because we are sponsoring that event.'
Comparing stores at Broadway at the Beach that were open for the entire years of 1998 and 1999, sales increased by 8 percent, Feagin said.
Myrtle Beach's continuous growth and allure to tourists help keep retailers' registers ringing.
'I'm optimistic,' said Deb Bramlett, marketing manager of Myrtle Beach Factory Stores. 'When people vacation, they want to take something new back with them.'
Even downturns in the national economy haven't affected Myrtle Beach like they have other cities, said Ashby Ward, president of the Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce.
In addition to the allure of the ocean, Myrtle Beach has a united, aggressive promotions team and a committed contingent of Northeastern residents who have picked the closer S.C. coast over Florida as the perfect warm-weather destination, he said.
Shopping nears the top of many tourists' to-do lists. Last year, 13.5 million people visited the Grand Strand, about 400,000 more than the previous year.
'While individual expenditures by tourists may decrease somewhat ... we are having more people coming in,' Ward said. 'I think we are healthy.'
Dianne Slotnick, marketing director for Waccamaw Factory Shoppes, is a little more skeptical. A booming economy with low unemployment sparks more spending. When the economy goes in the opposite direction, so will sales, she said.
'One definitely affects the other,' Slotnick said.
For the past three years, Horry County has ranked among the top five S.C. counties for gross retail sales.
The numbers have jumped each year: $5.1 billion in 1997, $5.3 billion in 1998, $5.8 billion last year.
'There's no reason for it not to [continue],' Ward said.
New stores and shopping centers -- particularly in Horry -- have contributed to the increases. In 1995, two major shopping areas opened: Broadway at the Beach and the Myrtle Beach Factory Stores.
Other development followed, including four Wal-Marts, a Home Depot and Seaboard Commons, which features Target, The Sports Authority, Lowe's Home Improvement Store, Goody's and Barnes & Noble Booksellers.
Even more is coming. At U.S. 17 Bypass and S.C. 544, crews are working on Sayebrook Village and the Surfside Center, to be anchored by a Lowe's.
There's also the Mall of South Carolina and the posh Grande Dunes residential-commercial development off 82nd Avenue North.
More stores create a competitive market among shopping centers to attract those spenders.
'I think it keeps everybody on their toes,' Feagin said. 'It is a unique situation and makes us concentrate on our customer service.'
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